Wet weather ahead, then sharply colder

There was a bit of a springtime feel to the weather today around the area. Highs that should be in the lower 40s were about 10 degrees above that by the end of the day. With dry air in place, temperatures have dropped off quickly now that the sun has set and will wind up in the 30s in most areas, with some lower 40s in the southern coalfields and sub-freezing lows in the high elevation areas.

Tomorrow will be another nice day, but there will be more clouds than we’re seeing today. Highs will be in the middle to upper 50s, with some lower 60s in the usual warmer areas. We find ourselves between a strong low-pressure center to our southwest that will interact with high-pressure near the Maryland Eastern Shore to give us some gusty winds.

In addition to the warm air, the two will also combine to bring a lot of moisture from the Gulf into the region. This could be very impactful as we go through Friday and Saturday.

Rain associated with the low coming from the southwest is expected to make it here by Friday afternoon.

The rain will be persistent and heavy at times, and once it’s here, it will be here for a while.

By the time it’s done, the rain could add up to more than 3″ in the southern areas, especially on the Virginia side of the state line.

But, at the moment, there is great uncertainty among the atmospheric models regarding how much rain eventually falls. The American GFS model is very wet, predicting the totals that I mentioned above. The European model has about half that total. We’re fairly confident in the other aspects of this storm, especially the type of precipitation.

The Weather Prediction Center thinks that there is a chance for the amounts of rain in a time frame that would allow for flash flooding.

It’s a small chance, but there is a chance for flooding, nonetheless, and we’ll be tracking the rain for you. In the end, we think that the best chance for flooding will be south of the state line, but that best chance area includes Tazewell County in our area. By the time the much colder air on the back side of the low arrives, most of the precipitation will be done. There could be a mix on Sunday, however.

Once the low is gone, highs will only be in the middle 30s on Sunday and again on Monday, before rebounding slightly into the lower to middle 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Towards the end of the extended forecast, we’ll be tracking another storm system, and this one will have a better chance to give us snow since temperatures will be colder.