OAK HILL, WV (WOAY) – We continue to track a strong storm that will impact our area over the weekend. Here is the latest information from our StormWatch weather team.
The storm that will cause us so many headaches over the weekend continues to take shape well to our southwest. As an idea of how much of the nation will be in the same situation as us, consider that advisories directly associated with this storm stretch from New Mexico to Maine and south to Georgia. The cold air that will mix into the system has prompted advisories from Montana back east to Maine along the northern tier of states.
The winter weather will begin tomorrow over the southern Plains, where snow and ice are expected in portions of Texas and New Mexico. The storm then heads east-northeast, and severe winter impacts are expected throughout the Deep South. There is an ice storm warning in effect for portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. As much as 1″ of ice could make driving impossible and knock down power lines. The ice spreads east along the Interstate 20 corridor into Georgia, shutting down everything in its path.
As the weekend begins, we get in on the action as the snow begins to fly early Saturday afternoon.
The snow will come down heavily at times, causing difficulties in travel for us. Several inches of snow are likely throughout the area, especially in the Greenbrier Valley and high elevation areas. There, cold air will run up against the mountains and will enhance the snow showers, making totals there higher.
Sunday is the tricky day in the forecast. Warm air is expected to overspread the state. The two main issues are how far north it gets and how far it extends up into the atmosphere. The further north the warm air gets, the lower the snow totals and the higher the sleet and ice totals will be. Then the thickness and placement of this warm layer – called a warm nose in Meteorology – also helps to determine whether the precipitation is rain, sleet, freezing rain, or snow. Other areas will see sleet mixing in with the snow.
By late Sunday morning, most areas will be seeing some sort of wintry mix, although I think that the rain is less likely than is indicated here.
We think that there will be some icing in our area, especially in the southwestern areas.
Below, we can see that the two major atmospheric models that we look at disagree dramatically on the amounts of snow and sleet, mainly due to one expecting much more ice and rain (the European) than the other (the American GFS).
One thing that is for certain is that after the storm is gone, the air turns very cold. By next Tuesday morning, lows will be in the single digits above – AND BELOW – zero throughout the area. Highs will be around 20 degrees below the normal of 41 degrees.
Check out the video version of the forecast below…
