Another beautiful Sunday across Southern West Virginia. Monday won’t be much different, but some rain is possible on Monday especially as we head into Monday night. The main issue with storms early Tuesday morning is the disagreement within the weather models. Some models show storms in the 3-4 AM timeframe like the one below. Others show storms moving through closer to 7 PM, while others even show nothing. Hopefully the model disagreement starts to end within the next 24 hours.
Whether or not we see storms across Southern West Virginia does NOT change the atmosphere. The atmosphere will most likely be supportive of damaging winds with any storm that forms, even if it’s very early Tuesday morning. This is a classic “Ring of Fire” set-up with West Virginia right on the edge where the storms run. The threat for tornadoes and hail look to be very low and we should really only see damaging winds and heavy rainfall with some of these storms. There is potential for storms to form Tuesday afternoon, that will be dependent on if we get sunshine after the morning round. Again, models do not agree on it and will be something we will continue to track.
In addition to the potential for severe weather, flooding is also a concern. While the storms should be moving fairly quick and won’t sit or train over an area for an extended period of time. The atmosphere is very moist and very heavy rainfall will occur at times. The risk for flash flooding Monday into Tuesday is not as high as it was last Tuesday, but some of the areas who experienced flooding last Tuesday are in that risk yet again.
Heres a look at the European model rainfall over the next 7 days. Some places get 2-3 inches of rain, while others spare out a little less but most of everybody sees at least an inch. The GFS model is not that bullish on rainfall and keeps everyone an inch and a half to maybe 2. The concern here is how widespread the models are showing this rainfall and the fact that most of this falls EARLY in the period.
Looking at your full 7 day forecast, a 40% chance of rain on Monday which is mainly late leads into potential severe storms after midnight Tuesday morning.The timing and track of a complex of storms coming out of the Great Lakes is still of great question and the main thing we will continue to iron out over the next 24 hours. Beautiful weather awaits Wednesday through Friday as we should remain mostly sunny with highs in the upper 70’s and low 80’s.
Watch the full forecast below!
