A wintry mess overnight and early tomorrow

We are seeing a calm evening around southern West Virginia, but it’s the calm before the storm. A low-pressure center is approaching from the southwest and will pull in some warmer, moisture-laden air from the Gulf. If the forecast pans out, then this air (which has a temperature just above freezing) will be confined to areas just above the surface. This means that precipitation will fall as snow and sleet, then go through the above freezing layer just above the ground. Finally, the precipitation will hit the objects on the ground that are below freezing, causing a layer of ice. The most likely area to see freezing rain is in the Greenbrier Valley, where the spine of the Appalachians traps the cold air at the surface. With colder temperatures there, the chances for freezing rain are greater, and the amounts will be higher.

We’ve run stories today about how the road crews are pre-treating the roads to get ready for the storm. If the Futurecast turns out to be accurate, the need for de-icing may be less anyway, but it’s good to hear that the salt has been laid down. Lows tonight are expected to be just below freezing, which is why icing could be an issue.

As we go through the morning, temperatures will rise to above freezing in almost all areas with the exception of the highest elevations, ending the freezing rain threat.

We’ll top out in the middle to upper 30s, not exactly tropical feeling, but at least it won’t be icy. Tomorrow night, we’ll see lows in the lower 20s, but the low will be gone, and with the exception of some possible lingering snow in the mountains, the precipitation as well.

We’ll get a break from the precipitation during the middle of the week as we’ll be under the influence of high pressure. Temperatures will not be warming up, however, as we’ll still be in the mid to upper 30s. The break is only temporary, and another series of lows comes charging into the region. The first is on Friday, and once again, freezing rain is possible as the setup is similar to what we’re seeing tonight and early tomorrow.

Beyond the extended forecast, temperatures look to stay below the normal over the 6–10-day period. Precipitation is expected to be near normal.