OAK HILL, WV (WOAY) – It was a nice day today around the region, with temperatures a few degrees warmer than they were on Monday. We saw a mix of sun and clouds today, with increasing clouds as the day has gone on. The clouds haven’t produced any rain, but they will keep it from dropping as much as it would normally drop tonight if we had clear skies.

Tomorrow, the slight warm-up will continue as a warm front associated with a low-pressure center over the western Great Lakes will overspread the state. For the first time in a few days, highs will reach the 80-degree mark in most areas. The European atmospheric model wants to paint a few showers over the area, but after putting a few showers in the forecast yesterday, I’ve removed them and now think we’ll stay dry. Winds will pick up in the afternoon as the oncoming low interacts with a weak area of high pressure off the Atlantic coast.
Thursday will be an active day around the region as the cold front comes through, producing some strong to severe storms as it does so.

Possible limiting factors for the potential severe storms will be timing and cloud cover, but it looks like we’ll see some type of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area in the “Slight” risk category for severe storms from Thursday morning through Friday morning (Level 2 out of 5).

As expected, the consensus seems to be that there will be damaging winds with some of the storms. Large hail is only a small threat, with the freezing level expected to be far above the surface. Tornadoes (at least for us) are not expected with these storms. Flooding rain is also possible since the storms should have plenty of moisture to work with, and most of the area is under a “Slight” risk for that as well (Level 2 out of 4). A small portion of the area in the far southeast is in the “Marginal” risk (Level 1 out of 4).
If there is a positive, it looks like decent rain will fall with this storm, and when combined with the rain that we’re expecting early next week, we will hopefully put a good dent in the drought.
After this first storm is gone, another stretch of cooler and drier weather is in the forecast, leading to a pleasant weekend for us. Another warm front passes over the state on Sunday, and that could trigger some showers late in the day, but most of our Father’s Day plans should be fine weather-wise. A much better chance for rain will start off the next traditional work week and take us through the end of the forecast period.

Click below for a video version of the forecast…
https://youtu.be/eud_iDj19tU
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