It’s been a calm day and will be a calm Monday as well. Once we head toward Tuesday, the SPC has a marginal risk area near our area, this does include Western West Virginia but not our immediate counties. This is a tricky severe weather forecast because looking at the futurecast CAPE, which stands for the energy that the atmosphere has to produce severe weather. It’s still fairly low across our area around 2PM, but it’s there. The majority of the green, showing more energy is lined up pretty well with their current outlook across Western West Virginia.
This is what one of the models thinks the future radar could look like around 4 AM Tuesday. This is also what could make things tricky to forecast. Heavy rain is able to “washout” the environment which would lead to very minimal energy after this rain moves through. However, since the model also showed those CAPE values starting to increase again Tuesday afternoon, I can’t rule out a strong storm or two if we can get a storm up in our region in that timeframe. Damaging winds up to 60 MPH and the potential for severe hail would appear possible in any of those storms. That is MOST LIKELY across Western West Virginia, but I can’t rule a rogue storm out producing that in our local area.
The main good news about this is the rainfall, with much of our area being in a severe drought. The European model shows much of our area picking up nearly an inch of rain. This won’t completely help to alleviate the drought, but it sure will help!
Here’s a look at the 7 day forecast. Tuesday and Wednesday look like washouts compared to any other day this coming week. Some scattered showers are possible Thursday-Saturday, and models keep flip-flopping Thursday and Friday as being dry, so we will continue to monitor that.
Watch the full forecast below!
