WOAY-TV (Oak Hill, WV): Is the early September chill a sign of a cold, snowy winter or is Mother Nature teasing southern West Virginia coming out of summer?
The major pattern drivers we identified for the 2024-25 Winter include:
Strong negative Pacific-Decadal Oscillation: an arc of cooler water from the Aleutian Islands to the U.S. West Coast with a pocket of warm water adjacent in the North Pacific.
Weak La Nina: Even though the Equatorial Pacific waters haven’t reached La Nina status, the atmosphere is acting like we are in a La Nina pattern.
Anomalously high sunspot activity: Far more sunspots than expected at this peak of Solar Cycle 25.
How will these factors impact our weather here in southern West Virginia? We expect winter to start with seasonable temperatures and two days with light snow accumulation in December. A White Christmas looks like a good prospect this year.
January will be quite warm with few very brief cold snaps (1-2 days of below average temperatures). Snow will be scarce, but yes, we will see light amounts. A big weather system will bring a significant change in atmospheric pressure at the end of January into early February.
A cold outbreak is expected in its wake in early February followed by a sustainable warming trend. Your heating bill will not be expensive this year. A very fleeting or short-lived cold pattern is expected in mid-February. The next brief cold snap follows in early March and then a spring preview arrives yet again. Don’t be fooled though, mid-March brings back the wind and chill before temperatures go off to the races yet again.
What about snowfall? We believe seasonal snowfall amounts will be on par with last year (see below).
When will our snow occur throughout the season? Check out the data we compiled based on our analog or best-matched winters below.
What about the remainder of the country? The major pattern drivers add up to a typical La Nina pattern with the Rockies most at risk for colder than average and snowy weather. The Mississippi Valley to the East Coast will see a warmer than average winter. The storm track favors rain/sleet/freezing rain/snow in the Upper Mississippi Valley and very little snow for the East Coast (I-95). New England will fall short of average snowfall for the season as well. An active jet stream will likely bring in above average rain to the Interstate 5 corridor in California.
