WOAY-TV (Oak Hill, WV): Compared to last year, the hurricane season has been very inactive. However, we are just getting started in the Atlantic Ocean. To this point, we have had 4 tropical storms, with none reaching hurricane strength. This is about average for the season so far. However, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Association has doubled down on their prediction for an active hurricane season. They expect 13-18 named storms, with 5-9 becoming hurricanes this season. This would be above normal dispute the “slow” start. With this in mind, there have been rumbles across the internet about a new storm forming in the Atlantic. Let’s take a dive into what’s happening and if this storm will affect our area.
WHAT WE KNOW NOW: As of 8:40 AM on August 11th, there is a bundle of organized storms off the coast of the Cape Verde islands that is termed “Invest 97-L”. An Invest is simply a storm or group of storms the National Weather Service is looking into with specialized data. This cluster of storms is moving across the Atlantic from east to west thanks to the tropical trade winds. While the storm is not strong yet, it’s very close to becoming a tropical depression. Here’s a look at Invest 97-L on Satellite:
UPDATE:Â As of 11 AM EST on August 11th, the National Hurricane Center has declared “Invest 97-L” as Tropical Storm Erin. The storm has winds up to 45 MPH currently. This early formation, along with a weakening Bermuda High, is making it more likely that Erin curves to the east before being a threat to the United States.
FOR THE FUTURE: With Erin officially declared, will she become a hurricane? The chance of Invest 97-L becoming the first hurricane of the season is also pretty high, though there is no exact percentage on this from the NWS. I would put it around 90%, as conditions are favorable for formation. Above average sea surface temperatures and the lack of strong wind shear outside the storm will promote the formation from an invest into a potential hurricane. This storm is likely to become our first major hurricane of the season as well, meaning a storm of Category 3 strength of higher. However, if it does form, it is still too early to determine its exact intensity and if it will make landfall.
Models are currently trending towards this potential hurricane forming in the middle of the Atlantic and veering off towards Europe before ever reaching the United States. If this scenario comes true, our local area would not have much to worry about. However, our coastal neighbors to the east will likely experience bad rip currents across the seaboard. If you plan on a vacation to the eastern beaches from New England to the Carolinas, be sure to stay weather aware and take the ocean seriously.
Despite how early in the process this storm is, we will keep an eye on things in the Atlantic in case any threat is presented to our region of the country. However, the chances are currently very low. We’ll have some rain and thunderstorms of our own, though, so keep the rain gear in hand. Stay weather aware as this situation develops, especially if you’re planning on going to or are on the eastern coast.
