WOAY-TV (Oak Hill, WV): January 10, 2025 was our coldest morning so far, but we are determined to best that reading next week.
LOCAL UPDATE:
QUICK-READ OUTLOOK: We have a dose of light snow on the horizon Thursday, freezing rain to rain Saturday with more light snow in the offing Sunday into early Monday before the coldest weather of the season begins its journey across the region.
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF NEXT WEEK’S CHILL: The top three analog dates to next week’s cold outbreak suggest the coldest temperature in the morning (for the Beckley area) will range from four above zero to minus-4 degrees. There was an average of 1.0-6.8 inches of snow on the ground at the time during the best-matched cold outbreaks, which will match our snowpack as soon as the frigid air settles into the region.
Also, there was an average of 2.0 to 6.8 inches of snow leading up to the cold outbreak. Our region will likely tally another 2.0-6.0 inches onto the existing snowpack prior to the core of the cold air arriving Monday.
LATE-JANUARY PATTERN: We do continue to see a strong signal for a warming trend from January 25 to the 31st. The top three analog years to the expected pattern change yielded one final blast of 2.0-3.9 inches of snow and then temperatures rebounded to 50-68 degrees several days later.
NATIONAL OVERVIEW: January’s first half has ranked as the top 20th coldest from the central and southern Plains to the Southeast (including our region). The entirety of the Rockies to southern New England and south have been colder than average. Coastal New England and the West have been much warmer than average.
The top three best-matched analog days to the expected cold outbreak next week show the month of the outbreak (January) ranked as the top 25 coldest on record from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast (see images below). The third best matched analog show (January 1994) was the top 5 to 10 coldest from the Northern Plains into the Northeast.
Compared to the 2nd best-matched analog date (see images below), we have 4% more snow cover on the ground leading up to next week’s outbreak. The snow cover extends farther south (I-70 corridor in January 2009 compared to the I-40 corridor this go around). This will likely lead to less modification of the Arctic air mass as it spills towards the Gulf Coast.
NEXT WEEK’S COLD BLAST IMPACT ON JANUARY TEMPERATURE RANKINGS EAST OF THE ROCKIES: All told, the January temperature rankings will move towards the top 15 coldest on record from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and move coastal New England to below average for the month.
MID-WINTER UPDATE: When the clock hit Midnight this morning (January 15), we were officially half-way through meteorological winter. The data shows our region of the Appalachians is coldest compared to average of any spot in the nation! We are experiencing at least the 32nd coldest winter on record. Notice the West is warmer than average. This winter so far ranks as the top five warmest on record so far in southern Arizona, southern California (where wildfires have been rampant) and a sliver of real estate from southern Montana to northern Wyoming.
PREVIEW OF EARLY FEBRUARY: All the signals are pointing to a warmer than average pattern emerging January 25-27 and likely continuing through at least the first half of February. This does NOT imply we won’t see snowfall because even in a milder pattern, snowfall will still occur.
One pattern signal we may see with a rapid transition to warmer than average temperatures is potential for a black ice situation even without any precipitation. A much warmer than average wind moving over pavement that has been exposed to prolonged frigid temperatures can produce a layer of moisture that instantly freezes without any precipitation in the area if it occurs overnight, early in the morning just after daybreak or just as the sun sets. This is something we will keep an eye on as the pattern flips around January 25.
