WOAY-TV (Oak Hill, WV): The polar vortex has split and will drift into the Hudson Bay through next week with sustainable cold weather returning to southern West Virginia.
Besides the Greenland block pattern developing and holding strong through the next 10 days before breaking down, the Madden-Julian Oscillation favors cold temperatures in the East.
Previous years with a transition from a 1-2 sigma Greenland block to a Pacific trough pattern include late February 2013, late February 2010, early March 2005, early March 1987, late February 1986 and mid-February 1980.
The map below shows the snowfall anomaly associated with these similar-matched years; above average snowfall from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and our region of the central Appalachians to the Northeast.
The similar-matched years show a strong signal for below-average temperatures from the Plains to the East.
Local impacts: The coldest temperature will likely occur around February 23 with a minimum temperature of 5 to 12 degrees. PJM, the regional transmission organization that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in our region, has already issued a Cold Weather Alert for February 17-18 that includes the Ohio Valley, Chicago area and our region. They will likely issue a separate Cold Weather Alert sometime between February 20-23 when the coldest temperatures of the pattern descend upon our area.
The similar-matched years also show an average snowfall of 6-10 inches during this pattern. For this year, that snowfall will fall between February 19-23.
Keep in mind with the flooding expected late this weekend, icy patches on sidewalks, walking paths and parking lots will linger through most of next week.
Stay with the StormWatch 4 weather team as we track the cold weather through late February.
