WOAY-TV (Oak Hill, WV): Now that we are heading below zero for temperatures early this week and we have a winter wonderland in our backyard, what pattern can we expect next?
Latest Southern West Virginia forecast through early next week:
Clouds return and a half inch to one inch of snow is expected Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Yes, the snow will stick on all the roads. Following the front, temperatures will drop below zero Wednesday morning. What’s next??
January ranks as the fifth coldest since 1987 in Beckley.
Three other similar-matched January’s stand out: 2014, 1985 and 1970. We see a similar temperature trend to this year in both 2014 and 1970 when January 7 and 9 brought the first cold snap and January 21-24 brought the second cold snap of the month. In both of these cold snaps, a snowpack was on the ground.
During the January 21-24, 1985 cold snap, the lowest temperature dropped to minus-22 degrees. The January 21-24, 2014 and 1970 cold blast had similar temperatures to what we expect Wednesday morning; minus-7 to minus-9 degrees.
One major factor contributing to the cold snap is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (image below). It’s in a strong phase 2, which correlates with well-below average temperatures in the East. Notice how it will migrate to a strong Phase 3, then 4 later this month and into Phase 5 at February’s start. The MJO is migrating into warmer cycles for the East. Notice how the MJO moves into Phase 6 around Groundhog Day.
The 1985 cold blast showed a similar MJO trend, except we migrated into the warmer cycles in early to mid-February (instead of late January to early February this year).
Two things stand out with the migration cycle. A snowstorm dropped 8.4 inches of snow on February 12, 1985 when we migrated from Phase 3 of the MJO to Phase 4. This lines up with our migration this year into Phase 4 around January 25. This date lines up when the next robust trough pushes into the Appalachians, so snow appears likely.
The second significant weather event in February 1985 that lines up with early February 2025 is a transition to very warm temperatures. When we transitioned from Phase 5 to 6 in 1985, the Beckley Airport reached a high of 72 degrees. This lines up with Groundhog Day this year! So, there is upside risk to a very warm start to February.
The full transition to a Pacific Ridge North American regime by early February also supports warmer than average temperatures. However, keep in mind, just like we saw in February 1985, we will have big temperature swings during the transition to a more sustainable warm pattern and likely a few smaller snow events.
Two other things to keep in mind following the deep freeze: as we thaw out, the frozen water underneath the surface of the pavement will thaw out and potholes will become even more of a problem.
Also, initially, the air temperature will be warmer than the pavement temperature at night. If we get a large pressure gradient that initiates a breezy southerly wind at night, even without precipitation, black ice could develop without much advanced warming. This black ice event is a rare thing that happens following an extended period of very cold weather when the temperature makes a drastic jump on the heels of a windy warm front without any rain, snow, sleet or freezing rain.