Winter storm update: snowy and cold weather is here

The precipitation arrived earlier this evening, and what we’re seeing as of 9:00 p.m. is almost exclusively snow. The two National Weather Service offices that cover our area are continuing the Winter Weather Advisories until 1:00 p.m. Thursday for Western Greenbrier, Northwestern Pocahontas, and Southeast Nicholas Counties.

There are also Cold Weather Advisories for the same three counties plus southeastern Fayette. The Cold Weather Advisory is a newer type of advisory, and it’s issued when extreme cold is expected but not cold enough to prompt the issuance of an Extreme Cold Warning. This can be due to the temperature, wind chill or both. In our case, wind chill values are expected to be below zero during the time of the advisory.

Total amounts with this first system are showing quite a bit of variation between the atmospheric models that we look at, with the European model much drier than the American GFS model. Both agree that by tomorrow night, the storm will be gone. The difference is due to two main factors: 1) when the rain changes over to snow, and 2) which locations see banding set up. Despite these challenges, we are still thinking that we wind up with 3-5″ in the high elevation areas in Pocahontas, Greenbrier and Nicholas counties; 1-3″ in areas along and northwest of the spine of the Appalachians and lesser amounts in the Greenbrier Valley.

Later in the forecast, another clipper-type system arrives, bringing additional snow and colder temperatures.

Highs will be stuck in the middle 20s most days, about 15 degrees below the seasonal normal. Lows will be in the lower teens with next Wednesday marking the coldest day.