Winter storm outlook update: A little less fuzzy, but still not clear

This evening, the first of the two storms that we’ll be tracking this week is pushing through the region. Most of the precipitation fell as rain, with the bulk of the snow in portions of Pocahontas and Greenbrier Counties. A chance for snow will spread throughout the rest of the region as temperatures fall to near the freezing mark, but the storm does not have a lot of moisture to work with, so any rain totals or snow accumulations will be light. With the cloud cover and a southwesterly flow, lows tonight will be around the freezing mark.

Tomorrow, the sun will break out, and with the mild start, highs will be in the lower 40s again. Friday will be slightly cooler as the cold air from Canada begins to invade the region. That sets the stage for the first major snowstorm of the season.

Saturday, a storm coming from the southwest will spread snow throughout the region. Significant accumulations are likely throughout most of the area, especially in the Greenbrier Valley and in the southern coalfields. How much winds up piling up is still a matter of great debate. The two major atmospheric models have flipped their predicted totals, with the European now predicting less snow than the GFS American model – the complete opposite of what was being predicted at this time yesterday.

Part of the reduced numbers with the European model has to do with the possibility of freezing rain and even rain to mix in, reducing the snow totals.

The GFS keeps almost all of the precipitation as snow, with some freezing rain possibly mixing in briefly in the southern coalfields.

Regardless of what the models do, we believe that it is likely that we’ll see a significant snowstorm this weekend. Take care if you have to be out and about, or simply stay inside if you can. Many areas will likely see more than a foot of snow, and some areas will likely see some icing as well. After it is gone, the cold air takes over, and temperatures will be frigid once again, especially in the mornings.