Tracking possible severe storms, then snow

OAK HILL, WV (WOAY) – It was a nice day around the region again today, with highs once again in the 70s, well above the normal.

Tomorrow we’ll be even warmer, and the record high for the date looks likely to be broken. But tomorrow is when the weather gets very active as a strong cold front moves through the region. Ahead of the front, isolated storms could develop, and these could be severe. How strong they are will depend on how unstable the atmosphere becomes. While areas to our north will see the strongest storms, some of the stronger storms will clip our northern areas, especially Nicholas County. There, our high-resolution Futurecast was originally showing a very strong storm right over the county at 3 p.m. Later runs of the model, however, have reduced the chances for severe weather in that location at that time. Instead, at 2 p.m., a strong storm is expected to be over the extreme northern part of the county.

So, while it’s impossible to predict whether this storm will actually develop and how strong it will be, the atmosphere is expected to be unstable enough that strong storms like that are a possibility throughout the area, and we’ll definitely have to be weather aware tomorrow. All hazards are in play, but damaging winds are the main threat.

Later Wednesday, the line of storms associated with the front gives us another round of possible severe weather. This time, damaging winds will be the main threat, but a few isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Once again, the atmosphere is more unstable than what we saw on Saturday night when the front came through. In addition, the front itself is much stronger. It also has more moisture to work with, so the chance for flooding rain is also in the cards. Finally, as the front swings through, the temperatures drop significantly, and the precipitation should change over to snow by early Thursday morning.
Thursday will provide quite the shock, as highs that have been in the mid-70s will drop into the lower 40s. After another stretch of mild weather, the extended forecast will repeat the process again later, although the next front arriving Monday is not expected to bring severe weather. Highs rise into the upper 60s by Sunday before dropping into the middle 40s and eventually the middle 30s by next Tuesday.
Click below for a video version of the forecast…
https://youtu.be/iQfkuwInTtk
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