OAK HILL, WV (WOAY) – The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season starts on June 1st and today forecasters with NOAA released their outlook for the season.
The Equatorial Pacific is expected to be very warm this year. This phenomenon, known as an El Nino, helps to suppress the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes by producing strong winds out of the southwest over the tropical Atlantic. Those winds, known as shear, inhibit the formation of tropical systems by taking the tops off the thunderstorms and inhibiting their development. Every few years, the Pacific waters off of the western South American coast will switch from warmer than normal to cooler than normal. The opposite effect is known as a La Nina.
As we can see from the chart above, the last strong El Nino seasons were in 2015 and 2016. In those years, there were 11 and 15 storms respectively, compared to the normal of just over 14 named storms per season. According to the NOAA release, the El Nino is one of three factors being considered in the forecast this year. The others are the above normal water temperatures in the Atlantic (a regular occurrence in recent years) and the trade winds. Those two factors are actually favorable, but the strong El Nino is expected to be the dominant factor.
Overall, NOAA is expecting between 8 and 14 storms, with 3-6 of those becoming hurricanes, and 1-3 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes (with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater). The forecasters are showing some confidence in the seasonal prediction. They say there’s a 55% chance for a below normal season, and while that doesn’t sound all that confident, but it compares favorably to a 35% confidence in a near normal season and only a 10% probability for an above normal season.
The first named storm of the season will be called Arthur. The lists are reused every six years, unless a storm name is retired due to its destructive nature or high death toll. This year, Leah replaces Laura.
In our area, of course, inland flooding is the main concern for us. We saw some flooding in our southern counties with Helene two years ago and several other storms have caused flooding in the state as well.
To see the full release from NOAA, click on this link: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season
