Historic West Virginia Drought Takes Another Turn For The Worst; Rain Outlook Bleak

WOAY-TV (Oak Hill, WV): The latest Drought Monitor shows the second highest level drought classification has expanded along Route 19.

The highest-level drought, the exceptional category, expanded very close to Nicholas County in today’s update as well. In order to come on par with average precipitation for 2024, Route 19 needs 6 to 7 inches of rain, the Greenbrier Valley needs 3 inches while our friends to the north in the Monongahela National Forest need a whopping 10 to 12 inches of rain.

53.2% of West Virginia is in an extreme drought, the second highest classification on the scale. This ranks as the largest amount of real estate of any state for this level of drought coverage as of September 12. Only Ohio leads West Virginia in real estate covered by the highest classification, exceptional drought.

One of the best measures of the current and expected trends with the drought is the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) because it measures the ability for soil to quickly dry out. We are in the highest category, so this signifies a continuation and expansion of the severe to exceptional drought, barring no complete weather pattern flip.

The reason West Virginia won’t benefit from former Hurricane Francine’s moisture is a strong high pressure anchored east of New England in the North Atlantic. This blocking pattern is thanks to a weakness in the winds around the developing polar vortex. The Greenland blocking pattern will gradually weaken later this month and bring a better chance of at least scattered showers.

The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) forecast favors high-latitude blocking in Canada through late September. Historically, blocking to the north can rob much of West Virginia from receiving beneficial rain.
A Greenland Block pattern in September is known for keeping beneficial rain from reaching into West Virginia while bringing an elevated risk for more rain than average along the Mid-Atlantic coast. In the winter, it can be a catalyst for supplying cold air for winter storms.
Rainfall anomalies associated with a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. An elevated risk for rain extends along the East Coast. Dry weather bleeds into the Northeast. West Virginia has upside risk for less than average rainfall.

Chief Meteorologist Chad Merrill has more information on the prospects for rain in the coming weeks with our radio partner, Lake Country 95.7 FM out of Summersville:

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