OAK HILL, WV (WOAY) – We were tracking strong to severe storms well to our northwest over portions of Indiana and Ohio. As the night went on, it became obvious that their motion would take them to areas to our west over Kentucky.
While we may not get showers and storms overnight, we’ll still be quite humid, not surprising given the flow out of the southwest from the Gulf. Lows will only drop into the mid-60s.
Regardless, we are still expecting a strong line of storms to roll through the area during the mid-to- late morning hours tomorrow. The line should produce strong winds and heavy rainfall. The rain could be heavy enough to cause flash flooding, but the line moves through quickly enough that the chances for flooding are reduced a bit. Still, pay attention to the creeks and streams in your neighborhood, and if a warning is issued or if you’re told to evacuate, be ready to do so.
The high-resolution models we looked at showed quite a bit of variation in their forecasts of the timing and location of the strongest storms tomorrow. This evening, the latest runs arrived, and the two models were in better agreement. The HRRR still has the entire area covered in heavy rain, and that’s the one we’re going with, although I still think the chance for strong storms will be mainly over the western and southwestern areas.
The afternoon will feature a second chance for severe storms, similar to what we saw last week. Both of the high-resolution models pick up on this second batch of storms, but neither has the storms reaching the intensity of what we’ll see tomorrow morning, much less what we saw last Tuesday. The strongest storms will be to the south.
Highs tomorrow will be close to normal and, like the intensity of the storms, will be dependent on how much sun we get, but should generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
After the line of storms is gone, there could be a few showers on Wednesday as a weak disturbance the weather turns pleasant for several days running, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-70s at first before rising to around 80 degrees again. We’ll keep the temperatures there throughout the rest of the extended forecast but add chances for more rain as another low passes to our north and drags another front through the region.
