WOAY-TV (Oak Hill, WV): Just as we rejoice over a few warm days this week, many folks are probably looking forward to spring blooms.
Each year, the Tidal Basin in Washington, D.C., becomes vibrant with color as the Yoshino Cherry Blossoms reach full bloom. What are we expecting for the timeframe of peak bloom this year?
Chief Meteorologist Chad Merrill explains (and for the abbreviated version see the info below the embedded video):
The peak date, when 70% of the Yoshino Cherry Trees are in full bloom, coincides with winter temperature to early spring weather patterns. The recent earliest peak dates between March 17-20 (2024 and 2012) coincided with persistent warmer than average winter temperatures from December to March. The latest peak date of April 10 (2014 and 2015) coincides with a warmer than average December, but colder than average February and March.
Ultimately, the temperature patterns in February and March determine peak bloom because persistent warm weather accelerates the process towards peak bloom while cold weather (particularly temperatures below 28 degrees at night) slows down the process.
February 2025 was 3.3 degrees below average in Washington, D.C. This is one piece of the puzzle that favors a later peak date than last year (March 17, 2024).
The second seen pattern favoring a delayed start to the blooms is an Alaska Ridge pattern through the first 10 days or so of March that will bring more sustainable cold than warm periods. The second half of March shows a strong signal for the warmest pattern for the East, the Pacific Ridge, which would accelerate the process towards peak bloom.
Chief Meteorologist Chad Merrill’s peak bloom forecast is for March 29, which is about 4 days ahead of the historical peak date of April 2-3 but almost two weeks later than last year’s peak bloom date!
The National Park Service plans to announce their prediction of the peak bloom date on Thursday, February 27.
