Sunshine for now, rain returns later

OAK HILL, WV (WOAY) – The clouds were stubborn today, and much of the region was socked in with clouds until the evening. That kept temperatures cooler than they would have been if the sun had broken out earlier. Highs wound up in the middle 60s in areas that saw more clouds than sun. The southern coalfields saw more sunshine, so temperatures there were a shade warmer. Skies will clear out tonight, and lows will be in the lower 50s.

Tomorrow will start out with mostly clear skies, and a few clouds will float through the skies throughout the day. The warm-up begins as the winds shift to a southerly direction. Highs will wind up in the mid-to-upper 70s, the first time in more than a week that highs have been at that level.
Lows will also be warmer than the previous few mornings and will be in the mid-to-upper 50s.
The warmer weather really takes hold on Thursday and Friday. Highs on both days will push towards the 80-degree mark, while lows will be in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Thursday will be mostly sunny, the last taste of nice summer days that we’ll see for now. Friday, a front that is attached to a strong area of low pressure will approach the region from the west. The low that this front is attached to will pass to our north, pulling a lot of moisture into it from the Gulf, with additional moisture coming into the storm from the eastern Pacific, associated with Hurricane Polo. Rain totals will be heavy over much of the region, with the two major atmospheric models differing on which areas will see the greatest amounts. Earlier today, the American GFS was the wetter of the two models, forecasting nearly 3″ of rain in some spots over the next week, with most of it coming with the weekend storm. The most recent run, however, has backed off on those high amounts.
The European model, meanwhile, has been more consistent and is now the wetter of the two in terms of total rainfall predictions.
The other question involves where the heaviest rain sets up. Both atmospheric models are expecting the heaviest rain to be in the southern areas. No matter where the heavy bands set up, the amounts of moisture are enough to produce possibilities for flash flooding, and the Weather Prediction Center has already put parts of the area in a 5 to 15% risk area for flash flooding from Saturday morning until Sunday morning, even though it’s four days away.
As we go into next week, the front swings through and temperatures fall again. Even though there will be plenty of sunshine, it won’t do much for the temperatures, as highs will drop into the lower 60s and lows will drop into the lower 40s.
Click below for a video version of the forecast…
https://youtu.be/0Np7a6NG25I
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