OAK HILL, WV (WOAY) – We were tracking some strong to severe showers and storms that made their way through the region earlier today, producing some wind damage reports in our area, mainly in Greenbrier and Pocahontas Counties.
This evening, most of the storms are gone, but later tonight, more storms are expected to invade the region, and some of these could be on the strong side once again. Lows tonight will be quite mild, typically summerlike, and it will be muggy. We’ll struggle to drop below 70 degrees, finally settling into the upper 60s.
Tomorrow will be active again with more showers and storms rolling through in waves. There is plenty of moisture to work with, so once again flash flooding is a possibility. The area is at level two out of four regarding chances for flash flooding, according to the Weather Prediction Center. Even more attention-grabbing is the level three out of four that touches the northwesternmost portions of our area.
There could be severe thunderstorms as well, and the area is under a level two out of five on that score, according to the Storm Prediction Center. The Storm Prediction Center even believes that a feature known as a Mesoscale Convective Complex will develop, push through the area producing damaging wind gusts, then allow for more individual severe thunderstorms to develop later on. The bottom line is that the main threat is the same as today: damaging winds, although an isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out. We’ve seen large hail today in some of the storms as well, but that won’t be as much of a threat tomorrow.
Despite a persistent cloud cover, temperatures tomorrow will be quite warm, generally in the mid-80s, which will help to further destabilize the atmosphere. The rain will continue tomorrow night and will again be heavy at times, leading to more possible flooding. Lows tomorrow night will again be mild, in the mid-60s.
The severe weather threat eases a bit in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame but is still present. Once again, damaging winds will be the main threat. Chances for heavy rain and flooding, meanwhile, take us through the rest of the week, and there is a Flood Watch in effect for the northern and western areas until 8:00 a.m. Friday. Other areas could see heavy rain as well, so everyone will have to watch for the chance of flooding.
The expected rainfall totals from the two major atmospheric models are pretty remarkable. While it’s only a model projection (and subject to change), it’s easy to see how the numbers below could cause some significant issues.
Some drier weather finally comes to the area this weekend, with rain chances in the 40% range, more typical of summer. A weak area of high pressure pays us a brief visit before moving to the east and allowing for more rain for the early part of next week. Temperatures will stay steady through the late part of the extended forecast, with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the mid-60s.
Click below for a video version of the forecast…
https://youtu.be/XFJHNGIPVWo
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