A pretty nice day today overall in Southern West Virginia, and that will start to come to an end as we head into the day Tuesday. The potential for severe weather has continued to increase as the Storm Prediction Center has put out an Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) for the majority of West Virginia and clips Nicholas and Fayette County. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat for Tuesday, but the threat for hail and tornadoes are increasing as the potential for supercells does exist.
The tornado and hail threat will be highest in parts of Pennsylvania and Ohio, but the threat is nonzero for parts of West Virginia, including Southern West Virginia.
One of the main questions we still have regarding the storms for Tuesday is the timing in which they come through our region. Some models, like the one shown below are favoring the line coming thorugh our region in the early to mid afternoon, while others take the line moving through in the early evening. The timing will become more solidified within the next couple of days.
While severe weather is definitely possible in our area, that is not the only thing we have to watch out for. The European and GFS model are both consistent on heavy rain coming into our area with multiple repeated downpours being possible. Flash flooding is definitely something we hav to keep our eyes on and not let our guard down. Expect places that flood often to flood again on Tuesday into Wednesday and turn around, don’t drown!
Taking a look at that full 7 day forecast, a 30% chance of scattered thunderstorms exists on Monday, most people remain dry before the real rain chance comes through with the cold front Tuesday and Wednesday. We start to dry out Thursday and Friday as temperatures drop into the mid 70’s and lows dropping into the mid 50’s for some. The rain chance does return heading into next weekend.
Watch the full forecast below!
