WOAY-TV (Oak Hill, WV): The polar vortex will be back in the news again soon, so how will it impact our weather?
A split polar vortex brought on the major mid-February storm that triggered the mammoth flooding followed by several inches of snow. The image below shows the disruption was to the tropospheric polar vortex (where our weather occurs) with the first red circle. The second red circle (far to the right) is the first sign of a major stratospheric warming event occurring ABOVE where our weather occurs:
What is going to happen between March 9-15 is a likely Stratospheric Warming Event, a reversal of the winds at 10hPa. This part of the vortex (the Stratospheric Polar Vortex) has been unusually strong this past winter. It has NOT contributed to ANY of our cold weather and snow.
Chief Meteorologist Chad Merrill had an interview with Dr. Simon Lee, a lecturer in Atmospheric Science at University of St. Andrews, to discuss the impacts of a big spring season event like this:
The earliest final late season stratospheric warming event was March 5, 2016. The tropical forcing didn’t coincide with this warming to produce an immediate impact on our weather. Instead, southern West Virginia got stuck in a warm and dry pattern for the remainder of March after 6 inches of snow on March 4. However, April 8-13 brought colder temperatures and 3 inches of snow. So, the implications to this early dynamic polar vortex event occurred one month later.
The second earliest final warming event on record was March 13, 2005. Once again with this event, we didn’t see the cold and snow until early April (3.5″ of snow from April 3-4). The tropical forcing lagged the polar vortex event by a few weeks.
However, these dynamic final warming events are not notorious for producing a long stretch of cold weather (more than 4-6 days) but instead a short burst of chilly temperatures.
This year, the tropical forcing is on our side for implications of this dynamic event before March is through. While the midweek storm promises to return the cold and snow showers, a period of warmth will follow through mid-month. We look to likely be impacted by a cold snap and snow at the end of March instead of early to mid-April, likely attributed to this dynamic and potentially final stratospheric warming event of the season.
At this point, it does appear this will be the one and only warming event for the polar vortex. If it does recover, it will not get as strong as it currently is (as of March 2), so if a final warming occurs after the March 9-15 event, it won’t be as dramatic and likely won’t impact our weather.
Stay tuned for more details!
