Oak Hill, WV (WOAY-TV): Will the most recent cool, damp spell be a precursor to October or will Mother Nature throw a monkey wrench in our forecast?
How Did We Do For September?: The bottom line is we have a warm month ahead. Most of that due to the heating of the day. Overnight lows won’t be too bad. So we’ll have quite a dichotomy in temperatures from the warm daytimes to the near average to slightly cooler than average overnight lows and likely less rain than average.
Yes, we did miss the rainfall for September because we saw well-above average rainfall across the region and we anticipated that will be drier than average. That was thanks to the early month system that a canceled a couple of high school football games and triggered flash flooding across the region.
When it comes down to it with the temperatures, we did see a very warm stretch of weather the first week in September and a couple of warm days since then. We’ve had some cool nights as well. Seven days were below average, three near average and 16 days above that mark.
October Outlook: Now, as we transition to the month of October, here are some of the teleconnection patterns that we have identified. The Pacific North America pattern (PNA) is expected to be in a positive phase. And then, to a lesser degree, to other teleconnection patterns that we are following include the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is expected to be in a warm or positive phase and the East Pacific Oscillation, which will be in a positive phase.
So when we look at the temperature trends with a positive PNA in October, we do see a signal for above average temperatures, especially across the northern Plains and also into the Appalachians. So we do anticipate we will have warm days coming up in October. When we look at the rainfall trends with a positive PNA in October, we do see the potential for near to slightly above average rainfall across the Appalachians, but a stronger signal for wetness (and high Cascade snow) across the Pacific Northwest. Across the Deep South, rainfall will be slightly below average.
So here’s a low down in October. First of all, we expect the fall foliage season will peak when a traditionally does in the mid to late part of October. We have a very warm start like an Indian summer pattern, mid-month cool blast, warm again and then chilly at the end of the month in time for Halloween.
If there’s any snow in the area, it would be flurries and confined to the highest elevations of Pocahontas County in October. Now, when it comes down to rainfall assessment and we break it down by the region. We see a 20% risk of above average rain along the Greenbrier Valley and the highest ridges separating West Virginia from Virginia and likely near average rainfall across much of the Route 19 corridor.
So, we don’t anticipate we’re going to have any flooding issues. And we also don’t see a very dry October. So overall, not bad as we move into the second month of meteorological fall.