EXCLUSIVE: In-Depth Analysis Into April Solar Eclipse Forecast

WOAY-TV (Oak Hill, WV): Will Mother Nature deliver on April 8th during the time interval that lines up with the rare total solar eclipse?

First of all, it’ll be in Texas during the early to mid afternoon for a duration of about 4 minutes. Farther north, totality will occur for about 4 minutes in Carbondale, Ill.

The closest spot to our region, Dayton, Ohio, will see totality between 3:00 p.m. and 3:15 p.m. Further north into New England, totality will occur very close to about 3:20 to 3:26 p.m.

So you might be asking yourself, what about in our region? Obviously, we’re not under the totality, but how much of the sun will be dimmed out as the moon passes between the earth and the sun?

Well, in Beckley, 89.9% of the sun will be blocked out. So, yes, it will dim a bit in the time frame right there around 3:13 p.m.

So, what is the historical probability of cloud cover? Based on historical observations of cloud cover, there is a 60% chance of cloudy skies at the Beckley Memorial Airport on April 8th if the temperature is at or below 45 degrees. The colder the temperature, the better chance for that a stratus deck in that lower level of the atmosphere will block out the sun. Now, there’s a 36.7% or less chance of cloudy skies when the temperature is at or above 68 degrees. So the warmer the temperature, the better chance we are going to see most of the totality.

Of course, you want to get the special glasses to protect your eyes.

Based on historical observations, high, thin cirrus clouds that only filter the sun’s rays are the most likely cloud cover at the Beckley Memorial Airport on April 8th. Wintertime is typically when a low stratus deck is the most likely cloud cover to obscure the sun.

What we want to see, obviously, is totally clear skies across our region for this particular eclipse because it’s passing pretty close to it. US.

There is a 52% chance of dry weather based on historical rainfall probabilities in our region and a 48% chance of rain. In the last five years, only one April 8th was dry. We haven’t really gotten much luck there.

Chief Meteorologist Chad Merrill’s bold weather prediction for southern West Virginia during the solar eclipse April 8 during the mid-afternoon:

A low temperature of 48 degrees and an afternoon high of 67 degrees with a high cirrus cloud deck that only filters the sun’s rays (not completely blocks like a stratus deck). No rain is expected.

Now, when I look at the trends for April 8th across the country where the eclipse is going to occur in the path of totality, I believe that during the early to mid afternoon there will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms from Texas into the Mississippi Valley.

I believe that from about Illinois north into Ohio, there will be some bubbling cumulus clouds, but I don’t think it’s going to be raining. I do believe that it will be dry across western parts of New York into parts of New England. So, obviously, most folks are going to head out to the totality path to see it.

Just remember, we are in spring and the middle of severe weather season, so general climatology factors into my forecast for the Mississippi Valley into Texas.

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