A gorgeous Thursday sunset, early fog on Friday and warm afternoon will give way to a cooler weekend behind an early Saturday front.
SHORT-TERM: Temperatures Friday will reach the low 70s but stay in the 50s on Saturday. Expect a rain shower or two with less than 0.10″ of rain Saturday morning, then clouds hang tough until 3:30-4 p.m. before breaking apart and giving way to a bright end to the day. Sunday will be seasonable.
LONG-TERM: A complete shift in the U.S. pattern will bring highs within 3 degrees of record territory Tuesday and at or just above record highs on Wednesday and Halloween Day. A breezy wind and low humidity each afternoon will elevate the brush fire risk. A Red Flag Warning **may** be issued for Halloween afternoon when the sustained winds and gusts will near criteria of 15 mph, humidity drops below 25% and 10-hour fuel moisture (brush, leaves) likely dips to 8% or less. We should at least expect the weather service to issue a Special Weather Statement highlighting the heightened brush fire risk early next week.
A western trough will become established and bring periods of snow to the Rockies early next week with a risk for severe thunderstorms in the western Plains. Gusty winds and warm weather will likely trigger Red Flag Warnings for a high fire risk in the Mississippi Valley.
EARLY TO MID NOVEMBER: Following a very warm start to the month locally, expect a front to bring temperatures back closer to seasonal averages (lows in the 30s and highs in the low 60s) between November 5-7 before another warming trend commences.
Beyond that, an active West Pacific tropical season will produce a tropical storm or typhoon that will likely recurve east of Japan in early November. Research shows recurving typhoons often lead to a cold blast in the Central and Eastern U.S. The time frame for this to occur would be between November 10-15.
