WOAY-TV (Oak Hill, WV): A cooler, less humid trend is set to close out May and begin June, but will that set the tone for the first month of Meteorological Summer?
Chief Meteorologist Chad Merrill explains:
The meteorology community looks at past years to determine what’s going to happen on a seasonal basis, called an analog. So, when we look at March, it was warmer than the 30-year climate averages for the Mississippi Valley to the East, and it was cooler in the West. The years that we looked at to represent what happened in the spring and what’s going to happen in the summer include 2016, 2010, 1998 and 1973.
Indeed, the signal was perfect in southern West Virginia; it was warm in the East, and cool out West. April was warm across the country, except the Southwest. The analog years suggested the northern tier would be warmer than average, southern West Virginia near average and the Southwest cooler than average. The analog years were too cool for our area and on-par in the Southwest.
May will end up warmer than average in southern West Virginia while the analog years suggested it would be near average.
The analog years and latest teleconnection pattern trends are on par for a warmer than average June.
Breakdown of temperatures and rainfall for June in southern West Virginia:
Coldest morning: Between June 1st and 10th, with temperatures in the 40s.
Hottest afternoon: June 11th and 25th, with temperatures well into the 80s.
The most consecutive 80 degree days: Between June 19th and 26th.
The most rain in a single day in June: Likely to be between June 12th and the 27th.
The most consecutive rainy days: Early to Mid-June
