WOAY-TV (Oak Hill, WV): While spring blooms have captured our attention recently, you are probably wondering if Mother Nature will serve up a hot and dry or cool and rainy summer for southern West Virginia.
Chief Meteorologist Chad Merrill took a close look at the climate drivers for June, July and August and has the official StormWatch 4 Summer Outlook:
In this second part, Chad closely examines the expected patterns of hot and cool weather through each month of the summer, rainfall trends and how they will help or hinder fruit farmers:
The strongest signal in the summer outlook is ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). Strong signals are evident in the Equatorial Pacific that El Nino will be history late in April, a neutral (neither warmer or cooler than average Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures) will dominate through mid-June before La Nina develops for the remainder of summer.
The second important signal is the 10-year temperature and rainfall trends for the region. The final signal is an expected negative phase of the Pacific North America pattern.
When we diagnose all this information, we believe summer will begin with an equal balance of warm to hot days and cooler weather. The transition into warm to hot temperatures will occur in mid-July and continue until the final week of August. Very few cooling periods will be found between July 15 and August 25.
The most rainfall will be in June to early July. August will be the driest month of the summer. Rainfall will likely trend above average along Route 19 to slightly below average in the Greenbrier Valley.
