Warm Pattern Continues; Any Link Between a Dry October and Winter Snowfall?

Temperatures have reached record highs today and Halloween will be even warmer. A front promises a few drops early Friday before a less “hot” pattern arrives for the weekend.

HEAT: Record-challenging heat is expected Thursday and again early next week. The weekend will see temperatures cooler, but still warmer than early November standards.

BRUSH FIRE RISK: We continue to have a heightened brush fire risk this afternoon, Thursday and early next week. Don’t burn brush during the day and properly discard of cigarettes.

RAIN: We see less than 0.25″ of rain early Friday, otherwise dry weather is expected until the middle of next week.

How are we doing compared to the similar years we used to represent this October? Actually, a smidgeon cooler than expected, primarily because of the October 9-18 cool spell, but the average temperature for the month will be above average thanks to the record heat at the end of the month.

October will be the third driest on record, behind 1963 and 1924. Historically, there is no correlation between a dry October and a boom or bust with snowfall during the following winter. That being said, the 1924-25 and 2000-2001 underperformed. In the chart below, you can see our forecast for snowfall this winter in Beckley is 28″, which falls in line with the 2000-2001 season.

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