WOAY-TV (Oak Hill, WV): The main drivers of the upcoming winter have changed and our StormWatch team examines the updated temperature and snowfall patterns.
- Borderline Neutral ENSO and weak La Nina expected: A burst of warm water pushed across the Pacific late this fall season and has tempered the prospect for a La Nina. This is no longer a major factor in our winter outlook.
2. Tropical Northern Hemisphere Pattern: The transition from a negative phase of this pattern to a positive phase is occurring in early December. This pattern signal is emerging as one of the biggest contributors to our temperature and precipitation patterns this winter. The negative phase typically occurs in an El Nino winter and a positive phase during a Neutral or weak La Nina. The typical temperature pattern in the U.S. for the winter is showcased in the image below. Our region sees several bursts of cold temperatures with brief periods of very warm temperatures in this pattern.
3. Westerly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation: This predictable pattern of precipitation in the tropics will stay in a west or positive phase this winter.
4. Best-matched winters based on the big pattern signals: We then identified winters with a positive TNH and QBO to identify the most likely outcome for our region this winter. Snowfall will trend closer to the recent 10-year average but still below the 30-year average (see below) but overall rain and melted snow and ice will fall short of last year. Drought improvement this winter will be slow and we’ll likely still be in an abnormally dry spell when spring emerges in late March.
5. Monthly temperature and snowfall trends: The overall theme to the upcoming winter is a sustainable cold start followed by a much warmer regime several days before Christmas, then a transient blast of cold air around Christmas and warmer until New Year’s Day. In 2025, a mild to average first half of January will lead to a cold second half of the month. The Martin Luther King holiday weekend will likely be cold. February will bring the most sustainable cold weather and then a transition to spring warmth will occur on cue with the first day of astronomical spring.
Below are the stacked charts that show the daily temperature trends December through March of the best-matched previous winters based on our analog years. Heating bills are likely to be higher than last year. The biggest strain on the heaters will likely occur between January 25 and February 7. This will likely be the coldest stretch of the entire winter.
Curious about the remainder of the U.S.? Below is our updated temperature and precipitation outlook across the country.
