WOAY-TV (Oak Hill, WV): The sun has finally returned on January 12, 2025, but we this is just a temporary break from the rounds of winter expected.
Following a sunny Sunday, clouds return Monday with a few flurries expected. Snow squalls and gusty winds will follow an Arctic front through on Tuesday with bitterly cold air in the forecast through midweek. Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm Warnings and even Cold Weather Advisories will likely be initiated in southern West Virginia. A Blizzard Warning will likely be implemented for western Pocahontas County.
Another cold front will push through this weekend and then a major pattern change unfolds for the Lower 48.
Below is expected upper-level pattern across the Lower 48 on Tuesday, January 21, 2025. Note the deep trough or “U” shape in the contours from Texas to Greenland and how it connects with another trough or “big cold circle” over northern Russia.
This is characteristic of a cross-polar flow, drawing in air straight from across the poles in northern Russia. Note the air trajectories below for January 21; the origin of the air mass for southern West Virginia originates from northern Russia.
Now check out the temperatures where the source region is for this air mass. On Sunday, January 12, the temperature was 22-degrees below zero at many of the reporting stations in northern Russia.
Now, in the image below, we look at the snow cover across the U.S. and Asia. Air masses tend to warm LESS when they move over a snowpack. The majority of the journey for this air mass will stay over snowpack, with less modification to it as it careens into the Lower 48 early next week (January 20-24).
Now check out the historical time period for which the Central and Eastern U.S. tends to have its coldest weather; mid to late January (image below). So, in essence, the coldest air mass of the season moving from a frigid source region into the U.S. with widespread snow cover along its journey during the climatological coldest part of the year will bring the Lower 48 its coldest weather in years.
The Electric Power Markets highlighted below will likely issue Cold Weather Alerts, advising electric providers to prepare for a big jump in the load factor as homes and businesses use more power to keep temperatures comfortable. This will likely result in an increase in natural gas prices.
Below is an upper-level map for the pattern associated with the coldest temperatures in our region. The “silver lining” for southern West Virginia is that the forecast trends show the core of the coldest air bypassing our region to the north and west. The trough will push into the Central U.S. and then lift into the Great Lakes and back into Canada before spreading entirely to the East Coast. We will likely not set record low temperatures with this outbreak, unlike many spots in the Central U.S. that will establish record cold. Instead, we will see much below average temperatures (one step up from record cold).
The next question revolves around the prospect for a snowstorm in this pattern. Below is the configuration for surface low pressure early during the week of the outbreak. Along the temperature gradient between the record cold in the nation’s midsection and modified Arctic air mass in the East will be a storm system. There is increasing confidence for a winter storm to bring much of the Appalachians, Ohio Valley and parts of the East (including our region) at least a moderate amount of snow (5″+). The overall upper-level pattern doesn’t fit the bill for a colossal East Coast snowstorm or blizzard though. Stay tuned!