NOAA Headquarters (Washington, D.C.): The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released their 2025 Hurricane Season outlook as of yesterday, with confidence in an above-average hurricane season once again. The season lasts from June 1st through November 30th with the peak being in late August through September. We’ll take a dive into the most impactful of storms in the area, the overall predication, and why it was made.
2024 SEASON: 2024 had 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes, such as Helene and Milton, are defined by being ranked as a category 3 or above in intensity at their peak. Helene was the most impactful of them for our area, with a Disaster Declaration being called for Mercer and Tazewell counties. Overall, it caused more $78 billion in damage and took 251 lives across its path of destruction. Here’s the hurricane’s track:
THE 2025 HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK: Moving from last year, what are we expecting for this hurricane season? NOAA has determined that we are likely to have an above average season, with 60% confidence in that conclusion. Here’s a full breakdown of their confidence in the production of this hurricane season:
With this in mind, what does a normal hurricane season look like? The normal, simply the consensus standard, number of named storms is a bit more than 14. NOAA is forecasting a range between 13-19 named storms this year, which would indicate another above average hurricane season this year. This rings true for the other values as well. However, 2025 is trending to be a slightly less active season than last year. Here’s a breakdown of the normal values, the 2024 season, and this year’s forecast:
Why will we see another active hurricane season? There are several things lining up in favor of the upcoming season being active once again. The most obvious one is the warmth of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf. Warm waters are essential for these storms as more warmer air can rise and fuel the storm. This is the main ingredient causing them to form, organize, and intensify. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are currently above average and will continue to trend that way as we continue into the summer. The above average temperatures have been prevalent for the last few years, including 2024.
Wind shear will also be weak in the Atlantic. Wind shear is simply the difference in wind speed and direction across the atmosphere. Wind shear often weakens and dissipates hurricanes since the cyclone cannot organize efficiently, so weaker values of wind shear will lead to easier formation and growth of hurricanes.
The third major reason for this trend is the West African Monsoon season. Many of our tropical systems originate from West Africa as the easterly trade winds blow the storms into the Atlantic and towards the Eastern United States. With an active monsoon season comes more tropical systems, which is what the forecast is signifying. Here’s a graphic summarizing the factors put into forecasting an above average hurricane season for 2025:
As with Helene and other storms, every tropical storm and hurricane this season will be named once they form. If the season aligns with the maximum of 19 storms, the last storm would be Tanya. However, if we do manage to exceed all expectations, there is a backup list of names ready to be used. Here’s the full list of primary names for the 20025 hurricane season:
To summarize, NOAA is projecting an above average hurricane season with 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. Warmer waters in the Atlantic, weak wind shear, and a potentially active west African monsoon season are all reasons the 2025 hurricane season will be active once again. Make sure you stay weather aware, especially if going on a vacation to somewhere along the Gulf or the eastern seaboard.
